Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 04 2021 11289 50032 379 105 87 128
April 05 2021 11289 50082 379 105 72 128
April 06 2021 11296 50124 379 105 79 128
April 07 2021 11306 50167 379 105 85 119
April 08 2021 11311 50250 379 105 90 109
April 09 2021 11320 50301 379 105 93 103
April 10 2021 11329 50382 379 105 82 112
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.3 6.1% 5 0.04% 8 0.07%
10-19 3 2.0 20.7% 17 0.12% 21 0.15%
20-29 1 2.1 28% 23 0.11% 26 0.12%
30-39 3 1.7 19.5% 16 0.12% 28 0.21%
40-49 0 0.9 11% 9 0.09% 11 0.11%
50-59 1 0.4 7.3% 6 0.05% 10 0.08%
60-69 0 0.3 6.1% 5 0.04% 6 0.05%
70+ 0 0.0 1.2% 1 0.01% 2 0.02%
All ages 9 7.7 100% 82 0.08% 112 0.11%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 04 2021 7185 29420 237 93 19 34
April 05 2021 7185 29442 238 94 16 34
April 06 2021 7197 29475 240 94 24 44
April 07 2021 7204 29516 240 94 30 42
April 08 2021 7209 29554 240 94 35 43
April 09 2021 7218 29588 240 94 37 49
April 10 2021 7222 29610 241 94 40 49
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.6 10.3% 4 0.05% 4 0.05%
10-19 0 1.0 17.9% 7 0.08% 9 0.11%
20-29 0 0.9 20.5% 8 0.11% 10 0.14%
30-39 1 0.9 17.9% 7 0.08% 9 0.11%
40-49 2 1.1 17.9% 7 0.09% 8 0.1%
50-59 0 0.1 2.6% 1 0.01% 2 0.02%
60-69 0 0.4 7.7% 3 0.04% 7 0.08%
70+ 0 0.3 5.1% 2 0.03% 2 0.03%
All ages 4 5.3 100% 39 0.06% 51 0.08%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 04 2021 5551 19463 249 76 44 55
April 05 2021 5551 19480 249 76 43 55
April 06 2021 5556 19493 250 76 48 58
April 07 2021 5569 19526 250 76 57 64
April 08 2021 5572 19554 251 76 56 65
April 09 2021 5589 19588 251 76 72 81
April 10 2021 5592 19612 251 76 68 84
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.7 7.4% 5 0.09% 7 0.13%
10-19 0 0.4 10.3% 7 0.13% 12 0.22%
20-29 2 0.4 7.4% 5 0.11% 7 0.15%
30-39 0 1.1 17.6% 12 0.22% 15 0.28%
40-49 1 1.7 17.6% 12 0.24% 15 0.3%
50-59 0 0.9 14.7% 10 0.15% 10 0.15%
60-69 -1 1.3 16.2% 11 0.17% 11 0.17%
70+ 1 0.7 8.8% 6 0.09% 7 0.11%
All ages 3 7.3 100% 68 0.15% 84 0.19%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 04 2021 12468 55578 385 80 91 128
April 05 2021 12468 55614 386 80 80 128
April 06 2021 12482 55669 386 80 91 132
April 07 2021 12487 55778 387 80 93 122
April 08 2021 12495 55909 389 80 101 118
April 09 2021 12504 55978 391 80 98 116
April 10 2021 12511 56081 393 80 99 120
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.7 9.1% 9 0.08% 10 0.08%
10-19 1 1.1 20.2% 20 0.12% 23 0.14%
20-29 1 1.9 20.2% 20 0.09% 23 0.11%
30-39 2 1.1 16.2% 16 0.12% 17 0.13%
40-49 1 0.4 7.1% 7 0.05% 15 0.11%
50-59 1 1.4 18.2% 18 0.13% 21 0.15%
60-69 0 0.1 3% 3 0.02% 3 0.02%
70+ 1 0.4 6.1% 6 0.05% 8 0.06%
All ages 7 7.3 100% 99 0.08% 120 0.1%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 04 2021 42398 332390 1326 289 606 793
April 05 2021 42475 332740 1333 289 623 838
April 06 2021 42515 332992 1333 289 607 861
April 07 2021 42570 333360 1334 289 615 850
April 08 2021 42708 333924 1338 290 706 916
April 09 2021 42817 334294 1337 290 780 965
April 10 2021 42904 334760 1340 290 835 996
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 6 5.4 6.7% 56 0.09% 74 0.12%
10-19 15 16.4 19.4% 162 0.23% 190 0.27%
20-29 29 21.3 25% 209 0.2% 248 0.24%
30-39 9 12.1 16.2% 135 0.18% 164 0.21%
40-49 9 10.4 12.9% 108 0.16% 124 0.19%
50-59 15 12.3 13.4% 112 0.17% 129 0.2%
60-69 4 5.3 5.6% 47 0.09% 55 0.1%
70+ 0 0.4 0.7% 6 0.01% 12 0.02%
All ages 87 83.7 100% 835 0.15% 996 0.18%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 04 2021 579877 2747012 27767 6639 5441 7445
April 05 2021 580184 2749514 27797 6640 5314 7414
April 06 2021 581070 2751936 27869 6648 5750 7947
April 07 2021 581797 2756357 27894 6653 6049 7898
April 08 2021 582843 2761157 27971 6667 6799 8407
April 09 2021 583935 2765579 28059 6672 7303 9065
April 10 2021 584739 2769189 28119 6676 7544 9419
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 51 54.6 6.9% 524 0.08% 661 0.1%
10-19 134 122.9 15.7% 1183 0.16% 1459 0.19%
20-29 150 139.6 18.9% 1425 0.19% 1724 0.23%
30-39 130 125.4 16.1% 1211 0.16% 1543 0.2%
40-49 101 111.9 13.9% 1051 0.15% 1303 0.19%
50-59 135 121.7 15.6% 1174 0.14% 1489 0.18%
60-69 66 68.6 9% 680 0.09% 847 0.11%
70+ 37 33.4 3.9% 296 0.05% 393 0.06%
All ages 804 778.0 100% 7544 0.13% 9419 0.16%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
10.7 15.4 12.4 7.7 8.4 11.7%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
7.9 5.3 4 14.3%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
18.6 7.3 2.7 22.6%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
10.1 13.9 10.8 7.3 8 8.2%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
18.2 26.7 23.9 83.7 54.7 17.3%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
16.2 19.3 22.8 778 501.3 17.4%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.66 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-05-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5928"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red