Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 04 2021 | 11289 | 50032 | 379 | 105 | 87 | 128 |
| April 05 2021 | 11289 | 50082 | 379 | 105 | 72 | 128 |
| April 06 2021 | 11296 | 50124 | 379 | 105 | 79 | 128 |
| April 07 2021 | 11306 | 50167 | 379 | 105 | 85 | 119 |
| April 08 2021 | 11311 | 50250 | 379 | 105 | 90 | 109 |
| April 09 2021 | 11320 | 50301 | 379 | 105 | 93 | 103 |
| April 10 2021 | 11329 | 50382 | 379 | 105 | 82 | 112 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.3 | 6.1% | 5 | 0.04% | 8 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 2.0 | 20.7% | 17 | 0.12% | 21 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 2.1 | 28% | 23 | 0.11% | 26 | 0.12% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 1.7 | 19.5% | 16 | 0.12% | 28 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.9 | 11% | 9 | 0.09% | 11 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.4 | 7.3% | 6 | 0.05% | 10 | 0.08% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.3 | 6.1% | 5 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.0 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 9 | 7.7 | 100% | 82 | 0.08% | 112 | 0.11% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 04 2021 | 7185 | 29420 | 237 | 93 | 19 | 34 |
| April 05 2021 | 7185 | 29442 | 238 | 94 | 16 | 34 |
| April 06 2021 | 7197 | 29475 | 240 | 94 | 24 | 44 |
| April 07 2021 | 7204 | 29516 | 240 | 94 | 30 | 42 |
| April 08 2021 | 7209 | 29554 | 240 | 94 | 35 | 43 |
| April 09 2021 | 7218 | 29588 | 240 | 94 | 37 | 49 |
| April 10 2021 | 7222 | 29610 | 241 | 94 | 40 | 49 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.6 | 10.3% | 4 | 0.05% | 4 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.0 | 17.9% | 7 | 0.08% | 9 | 0.11% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.9 | 20.5% | 8 | 0.11% | 10 | 0.14% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.9 | 17.9% | 7 | 0.08% | 9 | 0.11% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 1.1 | 17.9% | 7 | 0.09% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.1 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 5.1% | 2 | 0.03% | 2 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 4 | 5.3 | 100% | 39 | 0.06% | 51 | 0.08% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 04 2021 | 5551 | 19463 | 249 | 76 | 44 | 55 |
| April 05 2021 | 5551 | 19480 | 249 | 76 | 43 | 55 |
| April 06 2021 | 5556 | 19493 | 250 | 76 | 48 | 58 |
| April 07 2021 | 5569 | 19526 | 250 | 76 | 57 | 64 |
| April 08 2021 | 5572 | 19554 | 251 | 76 | 56 | 65 |
| April 09 2021 | 5589 | 19588 | 251 | 76 | 72 | 81 |
| April 10 2021 | 5592 | 19612 | 251 | 76 | 68 | 84 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.7 | 7.4% | 5 | 0.09% | 7 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.4 | 10.3% | 7 | 0.13% | 12 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 0.4 | 7.4% | 5 | 0.11% | 7 | 0.15% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.1 | 17.6% | 12 | 0.22% | 15 | 0.28% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.7 | 17.6% | 12 | 0.24% | 15 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.9 | 14.7% | 10 | 0.15% | 10 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | -1 | 1.3 | 16.2% | 11 | 0.17% | 11 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.7 | 8.8% | 6 | 0.09% | 7 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 3 | 7.3 | 100% | 68 | 0.15% | 84 | 0.19% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 04 2021 | 12468 | 55578 | 385 | 80 | 91 | 128 |
| April 05 2021 | 12468 | 55614 | 386 | 80 | 80 | 128 |
| April 06 2021 | 12482 | 55669 | 386 | 80 | 91 | 132 |
| April 07 2021 | 12487 | 55778 | 387 | 80 | 93 | 122 |
| April 08 2021 | 12495 | 55909 | 389 | 80 | 101 | 118 |
| April 09 2021 | 12504 | 55978 | 391 | 80 | 98 | 116 |
| April 10 2021 | 12511 | 56081 | 393 | 80 | 99 | 120 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.7 | 9.1% | 9 | 0.08% | 10 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.1 | 20.2% | 20 | 0.12% | 23 | 0.14% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.9 | 20.2% | 20 | 0.09% | 23 | 0.11% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.1 | 16.2% | 16 | 0.12% | 17 | 0.13% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.4 | 7.1% | 7 | 0.05% | 15 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.4 | 18.2% | 18 | 0.13% | 21 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 3% | 3 | 0.02% | 3 | 0.02% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.4 | 6.1% | 6 | 0.05% | 8 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 7 | 7.3 | 100% | 99 | 0.08% | 120 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 04 2021 | 42398 | 332390 | 1326 | 289 | 606 | 793 |
| April 05 2021 | 42475 | 332740 | 1333 | 289 | 623 | 838 |
| April 06 2021 | 42515 | 332992 | 1333 | 289 | 607 | 861 |
| April 07 2021 | 42570 | 333360 | 1334 | 289 | 615 | 850 |
| April 08 2021 | 42708 | 333924 | 1338 | 290 | 706 | 916 |
| April 09 2021 | 42817 | 334294 | 1337 | 290 | 780 | 965 |
| April 10 2021 | 42904 | 334760 | 1340 | 290 | 835 | 996 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 5.4 | 6.7% | 56 | 0.09% | 74 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 16.4 | 19.4% | 162 | 0.23% | 190 | 0.27% |
| 20-29 | 29 | 21.3 | 25% | 209 | 0.2% | 248 | 0.24% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 12.1 | 16.2% | 135 | 0.18% | 164 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 10.4 | 12.9% | 108 | 0.16% | 124 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 12.3 | 13.4% | 112 | 0.17% | 129 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 5.3 | 5.6% | 47 | 0.09% | 55 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 0.7% | 6 | 0.01% | 12 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 87 | 83.7 | 100% | 835 | 0.15% | 996 | 0.18% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 04 2021 | 579877 | 2747012 | 27767 | 6639 | 5441 | 7445 |
| April 05 2021 | 580184 | 2749514 | 27797 | 6640 | 5314 | 7414 |
| April 06 2021 | 581070 | 2751936 | 27869 | 6648 | 5750 | 7947 |
| April 07 2021 | 581797 | 2756357 | 27894 | 6653 | 6049 | 7898 |
| April 08 2021 | 582843 | 2761157 | 27971 | 6667 | 6799 | 8407 |
| April 09 2021 | 583935 | 2765579 | 28059 | 6672 | 7303 | 9065 |
| April 10 2021 | 584739 | 2769189 | 28119 | 6676 | 7544 | 9419 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 51 | 54.6 | 6.9% | 524 | 0.08% | 661 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 134 | 122.9 | 15.7% | 1183 | 0.16% | 1459 | 0.19% |
| 20-29 | 150 | 139.6 | 18.9% | 1425 | 0.19% | 1724 | 0.23% |
| 30-39 | 130 | 125.4 | 16.1% | 1211 | 0.16% | 1543 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 101 | 111.9 | 13.9% | 1051 | 0.15% | 1303 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 135 | 121.7 | 15.6% | 1174 | 0.14% | 1489 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | 66 | 68.6 | 9% | 680 | 0.09% | 847 | 0.11% |
| 70+ | 37 | 33.4 | 3.9% | 296 | 0.05% | 393 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 804 | 778.0 | 100% | 7544 | 0.13% | 9419 | 0.16% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.7 | 15.4 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 11.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9 | 5.3 | 4 | 14.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.6 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 22.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.1 | 13.9 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 8 | 8.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.2 | 26.7 | 23.9 | 83.7 | 54.7 | 17.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.2 | 19.3 | 22.8 | 778 | 501.3 | 17.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.66 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-05-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5928"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges